Let's hear it for upper level wind shear
Wednesday 13th June 2018
Disturbance Three hasn't moved far, just passing offshore of the Honduras-Nicaragua and ambling slowly to the north-west. This will gather speed a little and clip the Mexican side of the Yucatan channel tomorrow before entering the south-western Gulf of Mexico with a track in the general direction of Houston, as things stand. A strong belt of north-westerly upper level wind shear can be seen on satellite imagery across the south and western side of the Gulf of Mexico which will put paid to the usual catastrophists' warning of strong development, so this is not likely to develop any significant wind characteristics. This will produce a good soaking across central coastal Texas but a long way short of a deluge. Let's hear it for upper level wind shear.
Disturbance Five is located is now approaching the Netherlands Antilles from the east, westbound at a comforting 20 knots, which will kill off any notion of development aside from heavy rain across a 200 mile radius.