GORDON landfall close to hurricane strength
Tuesday 4th September 2018
Tropical storm GORDON is now around 180 miles south-east of the mouth of the Mississippi headed west-nor'west at 15 knots. Only a burst of upper level wind shear is keeping this from reaching hurricane intensity and I wouldn't dismiss the idea altogether. Nonetheless, this is still producing winds gusting up to hurricane force, so the shortfall is marginal. GORDON will make a landfall tonight over the Mississippi, somewhere east of the delta. Heavy rain, strong winds and localised flooding may be expected, particularly to the east of landfall. This has a current hurricane severity index of 3 out of a possible 50 (1 for size and 2 for intensity) with a forecast maximum of 5(2 for size and 3 for intensity) and has a tropical storm wind radius of 90 miles. Modesty almost prevents me repeating that we saw this coming when it left the African coast.
Disturbance Thirty is crossing Hispaniola, currently over the border between the Dominic Republic and Haiti producing little more than scattered showers and the odd roll of thunder. This will continue to track westward, remain weak and not develop
Tropical storm FLORENCE is blowing a hoolie 1200 miles east-nor'east of the Lesser Antilles. This is also close to hurricane intensity producing gusts up to 65 knots. FLORENCE is on a west-nor'westerly heading at 11 knots. Further intensification is possible however cooler water ahead may result in some weakening for a few days. Thereafter, this cyclone may strengthen again as it moves over warmer water and encounters favourable upper level winds as it turns to the north-west. All going well, this could mean missing Bermuda although predications in these latitudes are not reliable more than 48 hours ahead.
Disturbance Thirty Two is about half a day west of the Cape Verde islands moving west at 9 knots. Early to say but this also has a twinkle in its eye and may have development in mind but very much depends on a further disturbance leaving the African coast now which will have a say in it.
Stand by for hurricane conditions east of the Mississippi as GORDON makes a landfall and another difficult night ahead for sailors in the central Atlantic.