Calm returning to storm-beaten coast

Monday 17th September 2018

Today's report would seem to show a weakening season after a very active ten days. Disturbance Thirty Six which piped up in the far north-west Caribbean and entered the Gulf of Mexico to skulk ashore unnoticed in southern Texas was much overshadowed by events on the eastern seaboard, but is fairly typical of late season development. Nonetheless, it is worth remembering that the nominal mid-season is only a week behind us. Nothing would surprise me this season, but pay off day is still some time away.

From west to east,

The last knockings of ISAAC are located near Jamaica but without any sign of organisation. The most likely outcome for this scenario is that these remnants amble towards the western Gulf of Mexico as an open wave with some increased squalls but little else.

FLORENCE is now a weak tropical depression over north-eastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia moving north at 12 knots. This is still causing heavy rain to parts of North Carolina and flash flooding is still a high risk, but from a marine viewpoint, off our radar now.

Disturbance Thirty Nine has formed a couple of hundred miles north of the Virgin Islands. This is expected to move north-west and then turn north, passing well to the east of the eastern seaboard. Upper level shear will prevent any significant development

Disturbance Thirty Eight is now just over two days east of the Leeward Islands headed west at a brisk 22 knots. This has barely any shape to it and tropical development is not expected.

JOYCE is having a bit of a drunken stumble about, some 300 miles south of the Azores. Now headed east, next expected to head south before heading southwest then eventually scooting to the north-east and weakening without threat to land.

HELENE has transitioned to an extratropical storm as it accelerates to the north-east, well north of the Azores. This will be bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the Irish Republic tonight, then on to Northern Ireland and Western Scotland.

Aside from areas ashore still feeling the effects of FLORENCE, stand easy.