KIRK closing on Martinique

Thursday 27th September 2018

From west to east,

Disturbance Forty One now has the eastern seaboard in its wake as it heads harmlessly seaward. Currently 180 miles south-sou'east of Nantucket and headed north-east at 12 knots, this has had its day.

KIRK intensified overnight and regained its tropical storm status. Now 40 miles east of Barbados, westbound at 14 knots, KIRK is at peak intensity with a hurricane severity index rating of 5 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) and a tropical storm force windfield of 105 miles. Aerial imagery shows the squall centre displaced to the east of the nominal storm centre indicating upper level wind shear is already breaking the vertical convection cycle. As a consequence, KIRK will weaken quickly before landfall, which will be somewhere around Martinique this afternoon. More upper level shear awaits in the south eastern Caribbean which will continue to weaken KIRK after it passes the islands.

Extratropical Storm LESLIE is still around 500 miles west of the Azores milling around aimlessly with winds gusting 80 knots. This has been grappling with a frontal system for the last few days but is now starting to break away and intensify, and may reach hurricane strength over the coming 24 hours. This is likely to continue to lounge around in the same area with no threat to land but with a vast windfield over several hundred miles, will be bad news for sailors.

Disturbance Forty Four is a day and a half west of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 10 knots. Conditions aloft are not particularly appealing for development at the moment.

Disturbance Forty Five has just left the African coast and is moving west at 8 knots. This also has an indifferent environment ahead and development is not expected.

Storm cones aloft over Barbados and Martinique.

 

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