New storm prospect for Gulf of Mexico
Friday 5th October 2018
Disturbance Forty Six hasn't moved far since yesterday, still centred around the coastal border between Nicaragua and Honduras. The system remains disorganised at the moment but development chances are becoming more favourable as this tracks north towards the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to arrive on Monday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across the north central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday with winds of up to 30 knots across the oil leases and a possible intensification to tropical storm strength as this heads towards the Mississippi but upper level wind shear is likely to keep this below hurricane strength.
LESLIE has downgraded to tropical storm intensity, now centred 400 miles northeast of Bermuda and moving north-nor'west at 5 knots. This really isn't going away and is expected to retain intensity and position for several more days yet, possibly reintensifying to hurricane strength next week with some tracks nodding in the direction of the Azores.
Disturbance Forty Seven is a weak tropical wave centred around three days west of the African coast moving west at 8 knots. This is still facing unfavourable environmental conditions and may not survive the crossing.
Mucky weather in the central Atlantic, early storm plans dusted off for the Gulf of Mexico otherwise stand easy.