MICHAEL leaving eastern seaboard

Friday 12th October 2018

From west to east,

Short-lived Disturbance Fifty One has broken up in the far south west of the Bay of Campeche leaving only a few scattered thunderstorms and the odd shower. This has had its day.

Disturbance Forty Eight is now very close to the coast of Nicaragua moving west at 10 knots. There is still a chance of this developing as it meets the monsoon trough that spawned MICHAEL, but becoming less likely by the hour. This has missed the Canadian guy's route to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and probably everyone else's into the Bay of Campeche, leaving only a track into central America.

MICHAEL is seaborne again, now 250 miles east-nor'east of Norfolk, Va. headed a tad north of east at a blistering 25 knots. This is now by definition an extratropical storm. As this parts company with the eastern seaboard, some squalls and tropical storm force winds will brush portions of the north-eastern coast but this will be brief. MICHAEL will accelerate into the Atlantic tonight and pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, rapidly weakening.

Disturbance Forty Seven remains the runt of the litter, passing the Lesser Antilles today, westbound at 10 knots with barely a whisper.

Hurricane LESLIE continues to hang on as the season's longest-lived and dullest storm. Now located about 480 miles south-sou'west of the Azores, LESLIE is moving east at 25 knots. Despite a debilitating ground speed, this will remain at its current intensity for a few more days with a variety of options thereafter including a brush with Madeira or the Canary Islands but both some time away as yet.

Tropical Storm NADINE is now about 760 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor'west at 6 knots. Environmental conditions are deteriorating for NADINE and will cause the cyclone to weaken over the next few days and will dissipate this weekend.

Some stormy deep-sea conditions otherwise stand easy ashore.