OSCAR setting up for 2018 season finale
Monday 29th October 2018
The only show in town today is Category 1 Hurricane OSCAR which is now centred 550 miles south-east of Bermuda headed west-nor'west at 10 knots with winds touching a lusty 80 knots in gusts. This is not a huge storm nor is it particularly powerful but conditions ahead are fertile for development. OSCAR is likely to continue developing a firm convection cycle over the next 24 hours as it turns slowly north then north-east when it will race off at a passion-killing ground speed to shrivel in north Atlantic murk, before the end of the week. There are a number of modellers who are hinting at this being the season's final scene. Obviously that excludes the Canadian Guy who would undoubtedly have storms all year round in his mysterious world. I'm not convinced myself. We rang down Finished With Engines on the 2017 season on November 24th and 2016 on November 26th.
Admittedly, the three years preceding that were earlier - 2105 on 31st October, 2014 on 3rd November and 2013 on 6th November but there is still warm water, rising air and development windows across the basin - albeit patchy - where swirling air could produce a late season cyclone.
I will as ever show traditional seafaring respect (fear) for the unexpected and will hang on long after the other commentators have packed up. Sorry.