Sand across region hampering tropical development
Monday 1st July 2019
As we enter July, we begin to watch the African coast for long range launches which will eventually bring developing systems to the Caribbean. As with the last couple of years, a belt of airborne Saharan sand will dry out most developing depressions, but there is always the odd determined disturbance which can make a break for the west.
Disturbance Seven crossed the Mosquito coast overnight and is now loosely centred over east-central Guatemala, headed west towards the Pacific coast at a brisk 28 knots. We don't routinely track Pacific disturbances unless they show signs of jumping the fence back into the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, but we will keep an eye on this one as environmental conditions are favourable for this to put on a show and the Canadian guy staked his shirt on it.
Showers and storms associated with an upper level disturbance are developing over the central Gulf of Mexico. This is from an upper level system, which will lack the vertical convection required to become a tropical formation.