BARRY set for Louisiana landfall
Thursday 11th July 2019
Tropical storm BARRY is currently centred around 85 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi headed west-nor'west at 5 knots. After a few aerial reconnaissance flights overnight, there is a degree of certainly which was not available yesterday. As to intensity, this currently has wind speeds of 35 to 45 knots and is expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours. The expected track is now expected to close in as a moderate to strong tropical storm on the Louisiana coast, possibly reaching hurricane strength before moving ashore near Vermilion Bay on Saturday. This is already producing heavy rain across south-eastern Louisiana which will continue and increase. This system is expected to reach a predicted maximum hurricane severity rating of 9 out of a possible 50, 3 for size and 6 for intensity.
Disturbance Nine is passing west at 12 knots around 100 miles south of the Cayman Islands. This is weakening and likely to become absorbed by Disturbance Twelve.
Disturbance Ten is about 12 hours east of the Leeward Islands westbound at 18 knots. This will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles tonight and tomorrow but thereafter, the chances of development are very low.
Disturbance Eleven is around mid way between the Cape Verde and Leeward Island chains, moving west at 15 knots. This now has a well defined pattern of surface circulation, with some shower and thunderstorm activity. Without sand-laden air, this would be a perfect model for storm development. But sand there is, so development there isn't.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions along the coast of Louisiana.