Busy skies across the region

1245 GMT Friday 19th July 2019

A busy day across the region. From west to east:

Disturbance Twelve has moved into the eastern Pacific and is off our radar.

Disturbance Thirteen dissipated in the central Caribbean.

A cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf early next week and mill around until the middle to the latter part of next week. Systems such as this sometimes develop locally. Much speculation but little substance.

Disturbance Fifteen has piped up to the north east of the Leeward Islands, moving to the west at 12 knots. This will move to the west-nor'west and reach the northern Bahamas by late Monday or Tuesday. This has some rotation and scattered thunderstorms associated with it but faces some upper level shear despite a catastrophic forecast from the Blind Sniper. If it did develop, I can't see it reaching the eastern seaboard.

Disturbance Fourteen is loosely centred two days north-nor' east of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving to the west-nor'west at a brisk 25 knots. This is dredging sand and not likely to develop.

Disturbance Sixteen is moving off the African coast, westbound at 12 knots. This has a twinkle in its eye with some early surface rotation and scattered thunderstorms associated with it but faces numerous obstacles ahead.

Stand easy.