Long range speculation north of the Bahamas

1030 GMT Sunday 28th July 2019

From west to east;

Disturbance Twenty is currently crossing the Netherlands Antilles westbound at 15 knots producing localised thunderstorms and some scattered heavy rain showers. This is expected to deviate from the ‘safe' track direct to the west and move to the west-nor'west across the Caribbean today into Monday and across Hispaniola and eastern Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday but without significant development. Thereafter it will move across the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. The eternally pessimistic Canadian guy aka Blind Sniper already has this down for storm development north of the Bahamas. It is too early to add credibility to this, but environmental conditions are improving and a tropical depression or weak tropical storm forming north of the Bahamas is feasible. Regardless of development, this track should pass clear of the Carolinas.

Disturbance Eighteen is now 550 miles north of the mouth of the Amazon 19 moving west at 10 knots. There is very little thunderstorm activity associated with this and development is not expected.

Disturbance Nineteen is three days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at around 15 knots. This is still showing some enthusiasm but will soon hit Saharan sand and development is not expected.

Disturbance Twenty One is set to leave the African coast today. This has some mischievous characteristics with numerous showers, thunderstorms and early signs of radiating squalls. This would normally have the storm enthusiasts salivating, but sand-laden, sinking air across the convergence zone is set to disappoint them.

Stand easy.