Early speculation over the north-eastern Gulf & south-eastern seaboard.

Monday 12th August 2019

At this time of the season, we would normally be seeing a string of disturbances tracking across the Atlantic, each with its own potential to develop and hit the headlines. Sand and upper level shear continue to put paid to that. Today, the entire region lacks any significant pressure gradients at all and no developments are expected.

While this is great news for us all, unchurned water in the Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche and Caribbean is being give a rare mid-season opportunity to soak up a few rays. Warm water is the perfect fuel for storm development. All that is needed is for an opportunist low pressure cell with undisturbed, rising and wet air to begin vertical convection, and suddenly the holiday is over. The usual crystal ball gazers are watching an arc between the Mississippi, across northern Florida and curving up towards Cape Hatteras where a frontal barrier is expected to appear later this week. Eastbound fronts often produce a low pressure cell in their wake at this time of the season. If this were to develop, it could start the party over warming waters. Highly speculative of course.

Stand easy.