Weather watch for opportunist development as mid-season approaches.

Tuesday 13th August 2019

More trained eyes are on the anticipated frontal system which is forecast to drop down from the south-east continental United States next week. There is still some chatter amongst the experts that this could either go seaborne in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico or off the south-eastern seaboard. I can't see this going into the Gulf at all, but perhaps somewhere off the Carolinas which would almost mean a track harmlessly seaward into the Atlantic, irrespective of development.

Newbie Disturbance Twenty Five has piped up from a tropical wave around three days east-sou'east of the Cape Verde Islands tracking west at 15 knots. If this manages to wade through airborne sand, it will produce enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles this coming weekend. As we approach the (statistical) peak of this unique season, great opportunities lay behind impenetrable obstacles. It is unlikely that we will have any typical development over the coming weeks, so must be prepared for the opportunist sneaking through. It may be this one and at the same time, it probably won't.

Stand easy.