Long range forecast for a break in Gulf of Mexico calm reverie.

Thursday 15th August 2019

The anticipated low pressure cell spin-off of the frontal system leaving the south-eastern seaboard has not developed. There is still a slight chance that this could make a guest appearance on the south-eastern seaboard, but none of the modellers are holding their breath now.

Disturbance Twenty Five is now centred around 4 days steaming east of the Lesser Antilles, headed west at 15 knots. For the first time this season, it looks as if steering currents could take this into the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week, set to interrupt this long spell of calm reverie with a slight development window. For now, this has some surface definition with aerial imagery showing a fan of squalls producing increased showers and thunderstorms which may impact on the Lesser Antilles late this coming weekend.

Disturbance Twenty Six is slipping its moorings and set to leave the African coast soon.

Stand easy.