Peak season approaching with barely a whisper of development
Tuesday 20th August 2019
The growing mass of rising moist air in the south-west Caribbean is starting to show some shape and organisation. This is expected to start moving to the north-nor'west and head for the Gulf of Mexico in the next day or so with an ETA somewhere along the coast of Texas and Louisiana by the weekend. The smart money is still on a cautious weak depression with little more than increased showers and thunderstorms.
Gutsy Disturbance Thirty is passing around 300 miles due south of the Cape Verde Islands, inching slowly west but with no discernible organisation yet. Dry air ahead of the system is only marginally favourable conditions for development.
Whilst peak season approaches with barely a glimmer of sign of development in the offing, modellers are reviewing season predictions. Remarkably, NOAA have increased their prediction to 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. This has come out of the blue, and flies in the face of most other respected forecasters as well as the season's trend so far. Anyone's guess.