Long range forecast for Lesser Antilles tropical development

Saturday 24th August 2019

Disturbance Thirty is moving ashore, more or less along the state line between Texas and Louisiana with some heavy rain, perhaps more severe on the Louisiana side. Further development is not expected.

Disturbance Thirty One is currently centred over southeast Florida and set to move to the northeast, running along the eastern seaboard over the next few days. Although this will remain offshore it will produce enhanced rainfall along the eastern part of the Florida peninsula and all stops north towards Atlantic Canada in about a week. Some are talking up tropical development but in any event, will remain a fish storm.

Disturbance Twenty Nine is centred 400 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon heading west-nor'west at 18 knots expected to cross the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.This system has some surface rotation and thunderstorm activity associated with it and conditions are becoming marginally favourable development ahead. Nobody expects a severe tropical storm or hurricane but a weak storm may move through the islands of the eastern Caribbean during the middle of next week.

Disturbance Thirty Two is passing close to the north of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor'west at 13 knots. This has some surface organised and signs of convection but is likely to hit airborne sand which will keep tropical development in check.

Long range plans for storm procedures across the Lesser Antilles otherwise stand easy.