Hurricane DORIAN eye making new landfall close to Outer Banks.
1000z hrs Friday 6th September 2019
When a significant storm is passing close to land, it is inevitable that the availability of multiple live observations will produce a commentary which will be far more relevant than anything I can produce. Our summary of DORIAN will therefore be old news almost as soon as I hit ‘send' but as close to the state of the park at 1100 British Summer
Time/1000z as I can get.
Category One Hurricane DORIAN is now 30 miles due east of Morehead City, North Carolina headed north-east at 14 knots. Interaction with land has taken the worst of the sting out of DORIAN which currently has a hurricane severity index rating of 14 out of 50 (7 each for size and intensity) but this still has maximum wind speeds in gusts of a very unpleasant 100 knots. The western edge of the eye is making landfall around Harker's Island now and will continue to wheel along the coast until it slips free from Cape Hatteras in six to seven hours' time. Unfortunately, the worst of the rain bands radiate from the nominal centre to the north and west, meaning the coastal areas of North Carolina and south eastern Virginia will suffer from considerable rainfall and will be awash today. As DORIAN leaves Cape Hatteras in its wake and loses interaction with land, the storm will begin transitioning to a non-tropical system, expanding in size and accelerating as it does so. This will initially increase the hurricane severity index rating slightly to 16 (11 for size and 5 for intensity). Make no mistake, despite the drop in intensity, this will still be a hurricane. This will have a large windfield of tropical storm force winds up to a radius of 290 miles which may mean a swipe at Cape Cod as it heads north-east towards a landfall in Nova Scotia. DORIAN will then weaken as it heads north but will still potentially produce a strong tropical storm with significant impacts expected across Atlantic Canada. This has been a lethal storm. We'll skip the humour.
Disturbance Thirty Five lost all shape and identity far to the north-east of Bermuda and is now off our radar. Disturbance Thirty Seven has piped up 450 miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands heading west at 10 knots. This has a twinkle in its eye and we will need to keep a weather watch on this.
GABREILLE weakened to a remnant low overnight, safely over 1,000 miles southwest of the Azores. Whilst environmental conditions are unfavourable for now, I would not write off redevelopment at some time. This could be one of those systems that staggers around like the town drunk, slumped in heap one minute, full of energy the next and anyone's guess where it will end up. Watching from a distance would seem best but mid-ocean anonymity still seems most likely.
Disturbance Thirty Six is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands tracking west at 12 knots. This has some rotation and thunderstorms associated with it and may be in with a shout early next week.
Stand by for significant rainfall and flooding across coastal areas of North Carolina and south eastern Virginia.