Storm cones aloft as HUMBERTO approaches Bermuda

Tuesday 17th September 2019

Rainmaker Disturbance Forty is closing in on the coast of Texas now, centred around 70 miles south-sou'east of Corpus Christi. This is still very slow moving but the general trend is to the north-west making a landfall around the Matagorda Island area overnight tonight. This has been an oddball disturbance, having never really formed surface circulation or meaningful convection but is now showing signs of late development and may make a quick dash for tropical storm development before going ashore. What is given, is that this will be a rainmaker and heavy rainfall with areas of flooding will occur over parts of coastal and south-eastern Texas later today through to Thursday night.

Category 3 Hurricane HUMBERTO is now centred 570 miles west-sou'west of Bermuda headed east at 6 knots with winds gusting 105 knots at times and a tropical storm force windfield of 140 miles. This currently has a hurricane severity index rating of 13 out of a possible 50 points (6 size, 7 intensity) with a predicted peak of 21 (8 size, 13 intensity) coincident with closest point of approach to Bermuda. There is still an element of doubt over track. HUMBERTO has been moving to the east-nor ‘east over the past few hours and generally intensifying however, there is a slight chance of positive news as over the last hour or two, the eye of the hurricane blinked slightly as some dry air entered the convection column. If the convection cycle wobbled even briefly, there could be a shift in track, hopefully to the north. As things stand and without wobble, HUMBERTO will pass somewhere between the island and 100 miles north.

Disturbance Thirty Eight is located over Puerto Rico moving west-nor ‘west at 12 knots and continuing to weaken. This will continue to enhance thunderstorm activity across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today but little else.

Disturbance Thirty Nine, is now about 1000 miles east of Barbados moving west-nor ‘west at 10 knots. This now expected to curve away and pass a good 200 miles north of the northernmost Leeward Islands. There may be a northerly turn towards the Bahamas thereafter but this will be early next week and we have a way to go yet. Conditions are becoming more favourable for development over the next few days.

Disturbance Forty One is now located about 570 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor ‘west at 15 knots. As things stand, environmental conditions are fairly unfavourable for development and this may dissipate well to the east of the Caribbean.

Stand by for hurricane conditions to the south west of Bermuda.