IMELDA dumping rain across coastal Texas

Thursday 19th September 2019

The shell of IMELDA is well ashore now bringing heavy rain across south-eastern Texas with a staggering 16 inches of rain measured close to the south-west of Beaumont. Up to 10 inches of rain may occur today. Widespread flooding is ongoing and is expected to worsen throughout the day, unfortunately. To add to our woes, eastern Houston may see another 4 to 8 inches of additional rain tomorrow.

Disturbance Thirty Eight is passing around 80 miles south of Hispaniola moving to the west at little more than walking pace. Another rainmaker, but mostly at sea. about 5 mph. Strong upper level wind shear is having its say and this is set to weaken as it heads in the general direction of the Yucatan channel.

Hurricane HUMBERTO is moving away from Bermuda now. Whilst this hit as a category three storm, ravaging power supplies, the worst excesses were at sea as the nominal centre passed 80 miles offshore, due in part to the whiff of dry air which interrupted the convection column on Tuesday causing a life-saving nudge to the north. Nonetheless, this did hit the island with winds in excess of 110 knots. Despite rapid weakening, heavy rain and late storm surges are still causing some mayhem to the south. HUMBERTO should start to accelerate to the east soon, passing harmlessly to the south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical storm JERRY is now about 635 miles south east of Antigua moving west-nor'west at 14 knots and freshening, expected to hit hurricane strength soon. On this heading, JERRY will pass a little north of the Leeward Islands late tomorrow. This is not yet certain and a wobble to the south of track would bring tropical storm force winds over the islands.

Disturbance Forty One is around 750 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving a tad south of due west at 12 knots. This will reach the Windward Islands early next week. While there are no signs of organisation yet, environmental conditions should be marginally favourable for development as it moves toward the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean.

Disturbance Forty Two has just slipped the African coast and set to join the production line.

Stand by for heavy rain and flooding across coastal Texas and JERRY approaching the Windward Islands tomorrow.