JERRY causing miserable days at sea

Friday 20th September 2019

Pointless Disturbance Thirty Eight is shuffling slowly towards the west, around 100 miles south of Haiti. This course and speed are expected to continue for the next few days as it makes its way towards the Yucatan peninsula. This has some decent line squall activity radiating from its centre but is continuing to be hounded by upper level wind shear which should really have seen this off by now.

Hurricane JERRY is now located about 200 miles east of Anguilla moving west-nor'west at 14 knots. On this track, JERRY is set to pass north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands but at sufficient distance for there to be no significant impact. This is at peak intensity with a hurricane severity index rating of 12 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 8 intensity), 90- 100 knot winds and a tropical storm force windfield of 100 miles. JERRY is starting to weaken and there are some signs of upper level shear attacking the eye wall. This has so far been nothing more than a fish storm causing misery for sailors, but there is some chatter on the wires as this passing the Bahamas as a weakening tropical storm then lounging about getting its breath back, clocking on as a hurricane again and heading towards Bermuda or Atlantic Canada. Weather watch needed.

Disturbance Forty One is now 750 miles east of the Windward Islands moving west-sou'west at 18 knots. This is expected to slow and turn more to the northwest as it approaches the Windward Islands late tomorrow in positive environmental conditions. On the plus side, upper level wind shear will increase once it moves into the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Windward Islands over the weekend.

Disturbance Forty Two is now passing a touch south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west about 10 knots. Early days.

Another new disturbance is expected to emerge off of the coast of Africa during the next couple of days. For some reason, the Canadian guy has his name all over this. He's usually right once a season and he's due one soon.

Careful watch needed on JERRY and stand by for some miserable days at sea. 

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