Storm cones aloft for JERRY and KAREN

Sunday 22nd September 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Thirty Eight is crossing central Cuba moving a touch north of west at 13 knots. This has little organisation left and conditions are not favourable for development over the next few days as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm JERRY is now 500 miles south-sou'west of Bermuda headed north west at 10 knots with peak winds of 60 knots. Wind shear has interrupted the vertical convection column for the past 24 hours but this is weakening and JERRY will get a second wind but may not now reach hurricane strength. The track is now expected to take the storm west of Bermuda on Tuesday, reducing but not eliminating earlier fears for a second hurricane pass.

Disturbance Forty One has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm KAREN centred around 100 miles east of Grenada moving towards the west-nor'west at 10 knots. This is a fairly weak storm with winds just tipping 35 knots. KAREN will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles over the next few days after which it will turn more towards the north and pass near eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.

Disturbance Forty Two is now three days west of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 18 knots. This system is disorganised, and conditions are unfavourable for development as it crosses the pond.

Disturbance Forty Three has just slipped the African coast and already has a glint in its eye. This looks set to develop.

Storm cones aloft for tropical storm conditions for Lesser Antilles and Bermuda over the coming days.