LORENZO bullying sailors

Thursday 26th September 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Thirty Eight is drifting west across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at a walking pace, just on the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. A slug of dry air has entered the cycle and caused most of the showers and thunderstorms to disperse and may even see this off before it reaches the Mexican/southern Texas coast, which is just as well since this could have been a significant rainmaker. Having said that, this will still bring some rainfall this coming weekend to coastal areas.

Tropical Storm KAREN is still hard to fathom with two advancing cold fronts approaching over the coming days. This is currently dithering about, centred around 500 miles north-east of Puerto Rico and has just had a quick burst towards the north-nor 'east at 15 knots, but not for long. Increasing shear is taking chunks out of the convection cycle and adding to the uncertainty. This is only marginally making the grade as a tropical storm now, with a decreasing number of gusts reaching 35 knots. The latest consensus is for KAREN to make a clockwise loop to the south and southeast of Bermuda over the next few days then track to the west-sou'west. Thereafter, anything else is speculative and in my view, fairly academic as this is likely to be weakening towards dissipation without further landfall.

Fish hurricane LORENZO is centred 1,000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving towards the west-nor'west at 12 knots. This is a lusty storm with a firm convection column and developing rather quickly. This is expected to turn towards the north later and continue strengthening. Conditions ahead are favourable for development for the next 72 hours during which time, LORENZO will become a powerful hurricane with a wide windfield. At the moment, nobody is considering any landfall, but I wouldn't imagine the Azores escaping unscathed. Useless Disturbance Forty Two, which was a day south-east of LORENZO, has been absorbed by the dominant system.

Stand by for powerful hurricane conditions in the east central Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.