Weather watch on potential developments at sea

Wednesday 9th October 2019

From west to east,

Eyes are on a potential newbie disturbance forming in the western Caribbean, off the Mosquito coast of Nicaragua sometime late this coming weekend. This will probably track west to north-west. If west, this will take an early bath and dissipate in central America. If more north than west, favourable development conditions exist with rising air and warm water. Traditionally, this is a start point for October storms, so a watch will be needed.

Disturbance Forty Eight is now centred around 225 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. This is rather weak and showing very little in the way of shower or thunderstorm activity, and will probably be absorbed by Disturbance Forty Nine overnight.

Disturbance Forty Nine is now around 200 miles south of Cape Cod, loafing around aimlessly while steering currents bicker over its forward track. Nothing is likely to be resolved before Saturday by which time we can expect this to head north-east. Conditions are fairly positive for storm development, albeit weak, which could result in heavy rain and coastal gusts between Long Island and Maine.

Disturbance Forty Five is now centred around 800 miles east of Bermuda, also ambling around over the central Atlantic. This may have a weather window for development but will only ever be of interest to fish and sailors.

Disturbance Fifty is just slipping the coast of West Africa now and is moving slowly west. Early days yet, but no sign of any enthusiasm.

Stand easy.