CRISTOBAL causing flooding across southern Mexico

Thursday 4th June 2020

Whilst most eyes are on the expected track of CRISTOBAL to come, spare a thought for areas of southern Mexico and central America where rain is falling in biblical quantities from the storm siphoning from the Bay of Campeche. One overnight report predicted an area in El Salvador expecting 35 inches of rainfall over three to four days. Undoubtedly, flooding and mudslides will cause widespread major damage.

CRISTOBAL is only hanging on to tropical storm force by a whisker. Currently creeping south-east around 100 miles east of Ciudad del Carmen, this is expected to remain ashore, possibly as a depression, until tomorrow when it will relaunch from the Yucatan peninsula. Once seaborne over warm water, redevelopment will gradually return tropical storm intensity as it heads north. We expect a good groundspeed. The faster the speed over the ground, the weaker the vertical convection column but it is still expected to be a fairly broad tropical storm and that will bring with it a wide tidal surge as it heads through the offshore leases towards landfall in Louisiana, somewhere close to the Mississippi delta. This is expected to peak just before landfall with a hurricane severity index rating of 6 (3 for size and 3 for intensity) with a tropical storm force windfield of around 185 miles on Sunday. Personally, I think that's conservative.

Stand by for torrential rain across southern Mexico and central America.