Much chatter but no consensus on disturbance headed for western Caribbean
Tuesday 29th September 2020
From west to east;
Disturbance Fifty One is currently centred around 140 miles south of Port Au Prince moving west-nor'west at 13 knots and due to reach the north-western Caribbean late on Thursday where is looks set to stall. This will then introduce an uncertain prospect, which the Canadian guy is all over like a rash, of course. The more reliable, conservative modellers recognise some development prospects, but limited by upper level wind shear. The present favourites are a track into the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico, an aimless bimble around the western Caribbean with some smart money is on a backtrack to the north-east towards Florida and the Bahamas. In short, anyone's guess. Weather watch needed.
Disturbance Fifty is now 500 miles east-nor'east of the northernmost Leeward Islands moving a touch north of west at 18 knots. This is still rather scrappy and looking unlikely to develop.
A new low pressure system designated Disturbance Fifty Two has piped up 550 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at 14 knots. This looks set to cross the Windward Islands overnight on Thursday and into the Caribbean where a development window awaits, but thereafter much depends on the deployment of Disturbance Fifty One.
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