Watkins Superyachts posts their annual Atlantic basin/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean storm season forecast 2013

 

Watkins Superyachts posts their annual Atlantic basin/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean storm season forecast 2013...

Daily monitoring bulletins will soon be made available to underwriters, insurance brokers, yacht Captains, fleet management and offshore energy interests. Watkins Superyachts is proud to have recognised landfalls for DEBBY and SANDY in 2012 a full 24 hours ahead of any of the established agencies – even drawing the attention of office workers in Florida with a vested interest in advance warnings of unfavourable conditions.

Regular readers will be aware that I avoid long range forecasts as far as possible having a seafarer's healthy mistrust of armchair meteorologists, tea leaf readers and liars who are never around when you are up to your knees in filthy green water. Nevertheless, I'll take a stab at this, taking a mean across the board of the forecasters I believe, and ignoring the catastrophists and incompetents who I don't.

Last season ended having clocked up 19 named storms, with most activity having developed and moved in the central subtropical Atlantic with very little activity in the deep tropical convergence zone itself, in fact there was no hurricane activity at all in the band between the African coast and southern Caribbean, which is not expected to be repeated this year.

This season, no El Nino is expected to develop thus there will be little or no upper level wind shear across the Caribbean to degrade or interrupt vital vertical air circulation. Water temperatures are expected to be considerably warmer in the deep tropics providing more hurricane fuel than was available in 2012 thus anything that does develop between the African coast and the Caribbean is likely to be in something of a party mood.

The significant Bermuda high pressure zone which dragged dry and dusty air from the Sahara across the subtropical Atlantic for much of last season is expected to be significantly weaker, which will also enhance a predicted ripe environment for lusty storm development.

The likely outlook then is for more subtropical storm development across the convergence zone and into the southern Caribbean, with more tracks likely towards the southern Gulf of Mexico and south eastern continental United States on either side of, and including, the Florida peninsula.

For those who would like predictions in hard currency then, I'll take a lunge at the following compared with 2012:


                                                            2012              2013

............................................................................................
Named storms                                         19              18-20

............................................................................................
Hurricanes                                               10                 10

............................................................................................
Intense Hurricanes                                     1                  4
(Cat 3 to 5)

 

With the exception of the number of intense hurricanes, my prediction is not far from the figures for 2012 but I do expect severity and location to have more significance.

From now until the end of the storm season, Watkins will be producing a daily synopsis of conditions across the tropical convergence zone – with more detailed and frequent updates of live storms.

Contact Info@watkinssuperyachts.com to register for this free service or register on the company's website http://www.watkinssuperyachts.com/page/information-e-lists

Back