Disturbance Two heading towards Florida & expecting some development

Outlook for 5th June 1400z

Disturbance Two is currently centred around 300 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi and is headed north at 5 knots and the likelihood of this become a tropical depression or tropical storm is increasing, despite significant wind shear across the central Gulf of Mexico. The northward drift is likely to continue for the next 12 hours then veer to the north east. There are already some strong gusts within this system and the primary concern remains flooding as it crosses central Florida.

Disturbance Four is now centred around 450 miles north-east of the Amazon on a north westerly track and weakening. Other than increased rainfall over the north east Caribbean later in the week, this is not likely to develop.

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