ANDREA headed ashore towards the Big Bend

Outlook today at 1400Z 6th June 2013

Tropical storm ANDREA is currently centred 125 miles due west of Tampa and moving north east at 10 knots with winds of 55 gusting 60 knots. Tropical storm force winds are already being experienced on the west coast of Florida and plenty of rain in wide bands across most of the state. The current HSI (hurricane severity index) is 6 (3 for size and 3 for intensity).

At present, ANDREA is turning to a northeasterly heading and starting to pick up speed which will bring the system ashore within the next 12 hours, There is still some disruption to vertical development so this may be peak strength and as a result of this residual shear, the majority of the squalls and thunderstorms as well as the stronger winds are to the east of the centre, thus peak conditions in Florida are being experienced now and over the next six hours.

Post landfall, ANDREA will accelerate along the south eastern seaboard and by Saturday morning, an extratropical system will be moving into the northern Atlantic and pass south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland over the weekend.

Ashore, many areas in central Florida are likely to see an additional 2-4 inches of rainfall and perhaps 8 in isolated places and undoubtedly localised flooding. Sustained winds to tropical storm force are likely across portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula however thee will be at a peak tonight. A storm surge of up to four feet may be expected along the north west coast of Florida.

Disturbance four is still drifting to the north of the convergence zone and likely to dissipate as it tracks north west before reaching the Bahamas.

Stand by in the Big Bend region of western Florida