Four disturbances in the Atlantic/Caribbean region
General picture at 1200Z 22nd June 2013
A new tropical disturbance - designated eleven - has piped up this morning close to Oak Island, North Carolina. This is a low pressure cell which drifted away from some continental frontal activity, and is likely to drift ashore again in the next few hours. This is not likely to produce much more than 15 to 20 knot winds, with higher gusts in thunderstorms. There is a strong possibility of a couple of inches of rain over North Carolina for the next 24 hours, with slightly less through Virginia to New Jersey. No significant impacts are expected. Frankly, I wouldn't have bothered grading this myself. It's what we call a normal summer's day here in London.
Tropical disturbance eight you will recall drifted up from the Cayman Islands, across Cuba and Forida with little enthusiasm, and is now moving through the Bahamas at 10 knots. This disturbance is expected to dissipate over the next day or two with only a slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms possible over Florida for the next 24 hours.
Tropical disturbance nine is centred 800 miles east of the Windward Islands and is pushing west at 15 knots and is shaping up to continue through the Windward Islands and into the southern Caribbean over the next few days. This system has not really developed and may even weaken as it enters the souther Caribbean.
Tropical disturbance ten - which we modestly mentioned yesterday we'd seen 6 days before any of the established storm watchers - is almost mid-Atlantic and making a good 20 knots on a westerly heading. Todays's satellite imagery shows some decent cloud formation indicating that this may have a glint in its eye and will need watching.
Another low pressure cell would appear to be getting a head of steam up and preparing to leave the African coast and join the westbound production line.