Disturbance ten shaping up for the NW Caribbean

General outlook 1400Z 28th June 2013

Tropical disturbance ten has been tracked by the professionals by a week now, and by us for just short of a fortnight, and is centre of attention today. The system is centred just to the south of eastern Cuba with disorganised thunderstorm activity, but an increase in activity is expected when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean in 36 hours. By early next week, the smart money is on this disturbance to move into the southern Bay of Campeche and south western Gulf of Mexico where there is a slight chance of it becoming a tropical depression or storm and in all likelihood follow the track of BARRY into Mexico, well south of the Texas border and with little impact on the oil leases to the north.

Tropical disturbance twelve is around one day's steaming east of the Leeward and Windward islands and pushing west at 15 knots. This is not expected to develop as it makes its way to the west and will probably do little more than enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity in the Lesser Antilles in the short term.

A new low pressure system is leaving the African coast today and set to join the Atlantic convoy.

Stand easy