A new disturbance in Gulf of Mexico but development doubtful

General overview 1400z 12 July 2013

The frontal system which has shrouded most of the Gulf coast for the past week or so, is starting to move east. The fore part of this is now well into the northern Atlantic, whist the aft part is now passing the Mississippi. As sometimes occurs under these conditions, a low pressure cell develops in its wake and in this case, disturbance nineteen has appeared. The low is currently about 70 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. It is currently stationary but is expected to begin moving north later today. Occasionally these systems develop viz Hurricane ALICIA in 1983, however nineteen is very close to shore and in all likelihood will be home and dry before it has an opportunity to develop.This system is likely to move into the coast between Mississippi and the western Florida panhandle around midday tomorrow. If the low is able to separate itself from the frontal boundary, there would be a slim chance of it low becoming a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before moving inland. Within 50 miles to 75 miles of the path of this disturbance, strong thunderstorms are possible. Sustained winds in the area will be in the 20 mph to 25 knots. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce wind gusts as high as 45 knots.

The leftovers of CHANTAL are centred around 120 miles south-sou'east of Wilmington, North Carolina. Again, this system seems obsessed with speed over the ground and raced north overnight but is now back to a more sedate 15 knots. Landfall is now expected in southern North Carolina during the next few hours. Development chances are very slim now. Frontal upper-level wind shear is keeping most of the associated thunderstorms south of the centre and overall organisation remains poor. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms can be expected from eastern Florida into the Carolinas and even southern Virginia through to tomorrow morning.

Inbound from the central Atlantic, disturbance eighteen is between two and three days east of the Florida straits and westbound at 12 knots. A track slightly south of due west is likely over the next few days to take the system towards the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no signs of organisation at the present time.

Disturbance seventeen is in the east-central Atlantic, and quite some disdtance north of the convergence zone and moving to the west-nor'west at 12 knots. This disturbance is not producing any thunderstorms and development is not expected.

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