Four disturbances but no development expected in the short term
General overview 1300Z Sunday 14th July 2013
Disturbance nineteen is in the northern Gulf of Mexico near the Louisiana coast. The frontal boundary the low formed on has weakened into a trough of low pressure. The system is currently stationary but is expected to begin moving north in the next few hours, and will move inland into southern Louisiana this afternoon. The chances of development are slender.
Disturbance eighteen is moving west at 10 knots, now about two days east of Florida. This disturbance has weakened but will still bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to much of the Bahamas later today and tomorrow, then Florida tomorrow and Tuesday. Most modellers are dismissing any chances of development as it moves across Florida and the Gulf Coast during the middle of the coming week.
Disturbance seventeen is now well the the north of the convergence zone, around 1,200 miles north east of the Amazon delta and moving to the west-nor'west at 15 knots. This disturbance is not producing any thunderstorms and development is not expected.
Disturbance twenty has emerged from the African coast and is around one day west of the Cape Verde Islands. Some strengthening is possible over the next 3 to 5 days, but conditions along its path are not favourable and development is unlikely in the short term.