Three unremarkable disturbances across the reporting region

General overview 18th July 2013

Disturbance twenty two is a mid to upper level disturbance in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico causing some showers and scattered thunderstorms which are likely to spread in a wide band from Florida to the Mississippi for the next couple of days. . This will continue to beat to the west-nor'west over the next few days, but tropical development is most unlikely.

Disturbance twenty has completed the crossing and is now passing the Leeward and Windward Islands bringing short, sharp but heavy showers and localised thunderstorms with it. This has opened out into a fairly unremarkable tropical wave, which is not conducive for development - nor is its ground speed of 20 knots, thus is likely to plough on pointlessly on its current westerly heading without developing.

Disturbance twenty-three. which left the African coast two days ago with a glint in its eye, has had its ardour somewhat dampened by a belt of dry Saharan air blanketing the eastern side of the convergence zone. Despite this, it is continuing on a westerly heading at 16 knots. This is only going to rekindle its passion if it makes a successful crossing, which is doubtful as things stand.

Stand easy