A new tropical storm in the east - DORIAN
General picture 24th July 2013 1500z
Disturbance twenty three dissapated and is no longer of interest.
As anticipated, disturbance twenty four leapt through the scale overnight, becoming tropical disturbance four and now tropical storm DORIAN. Unfavourable conditions still lay ahead and it is uncertain if this will maintain momentum or develop further. This is a very early development and a large number of these end up doing little more than bothering sailors in mid-Atlantic anonymity. Nonetheless, DORIAN is 450m west-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands - well over 2,000m east of the Lesser Antilles and headed west at 17 knots. Current wind speeds are between 45 and 60 knots. Albeit a wild prediction at the moment, the current HSI rating is currently 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size / 2 intensity) and predicted to peak at 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size / 3 intensity). At this atage, a large pinch of salt needed. DORIAN does seem to be drifting a little north of the convergence zone which at this stage may indicate a path to the north of the Caribbean, but to offer any more today would be sheer guesswork. Let's see if it can cross the water first.
A second low pressure cell still looks set to leave the African coast and join the trek to the west in the next 2 to 3 days.