DORIAN becoming disorganised in dry air

General picture 26th July 2013 1500z

Disturbance twenty four dissipated as expected and is no longer of interest.

Tropical storm DORIAN has slipped further north from the lush convergence zone and is now in dry air which has sharply reversed the cyclone's previous bright prospects. Currently moving west-nor'west at 20 knots and centred around 1150m east of Guadeloupe with observed wind speeds of 40 to 55 knots, DORIAN is losing energy. For what is is worth, the current HSI is just 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size / 2 intensity) but may lose its storm rating altogether as the system fades rather rapidly. Most modellers have now decided DORIAN will not veer to the north to north west, but continue on this heading past the south coast of Cuba and then turn into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week from now. None seem to be alalrmed by this, not even those who can be relied upon to make more extreme predictions. The present informed view is that DORIAN will be depleted to such an extent that any remnant surviving as far as the Gulf of Mexico will lack any formation at all and be incapable of vertical convectiion - essential for storm formation. At the very least, we would suggest keeping a cautious eye and an open mind.

The low pressure cell we commented on yesterday as shaping up to leave the African coast has yet to be reported on elsewhere, but again, we will maintain a weather watch on this.

Stand easy. 

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