Five busy systems but only one viable prospect in the east.

General overview 1300z 30th August 2013

Disturbance forty three drifted quietly into southern Florida and has dissipated.

Disturbance thirty-nine continues to follow a westerly course across the Caribbean at 12 knots weakening as it does so. It is not producing any showers and development is not expected. Three days astern of this, disturbance forty two disappeared just prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles.

A new disturbance - more of an open wave of cloud and showers extending from the western Bahamas to Belize – has been designated forty five. It may be flattery to describe this as a disturbance as there is barely any vague sign of promise. Some of the shower activity is likely to move slowly west over the next day or two, but no tropical development is expected.

Disturbance forty just doesn't give up. This has been written off almost daily by forecasters since it launched from the African coast last Sunday - although at least one modeller had this down as a hurricane at some point. This is now 850 miles east of the Leeward Islands and moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. The disturbance is far enough to the north to fall foul of upper level wind shear during the next 5 days. There is only a very slight chance of development during the next week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely to reach the Leeward Islands by early Sunday.

Today's pin-up is disturbance forty four now just seaborne between off southern Mauretania and moving to the west at 12 knots. There is already some sign of circulation however, it is a little further to the north than usual and at this latitude, irrespective of development, it will probably make an early turn to the north and just make a nuisance of itself with sailors and fish, but without any impact on land.

Stand easy. 

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