Most commentators believe that the next named storm is on radar today

General overview 1500z 2nd September 2013

Most commentators believe that the next named storm is on radar today.

Disturbance forty six is now ashore in Belize and beginning a bumpy trek towards the Bay of Campeche at around 8 knots. Whatever remains as this emerges into the Bay of Campeche will find favourable environmental conditions for development. It is impossible to say how much this could develop but even the most enthusiastic modellers are not expecting this to have time or energy to become a strong tropical storm.

Disturbance forty continues to enjoy a revival as it passes to the north of Barbados at walking pace towards the west, having become slightly more organised in the last 24 hours. This slow progress is expected to continue over the next 24 hours before it begins to accelerate slightly and head more towards the north, however interaction with forty seven a day astern is likely to be a deciding factor. Irrespective of its courtship with forty seven, the system is likely to produce heavy rainfall and flooding for the Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola.

Disturbance forty seven is around 350 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles and catching forty quite quickly. Bizarrely, of the three active systems approaching the Caribbean, this seems to be creating the least excitement despite having a well organised cloud system and wide windfield. If this does absorb disturbance forty, we'd say this stands a good chance of development. As the dominant system, it is likely to continue to the anticipate track to the north-west, and pass to the east of Florida. Two systems create much uncertainty and the next 24 hours will be interesting.

The loose greyhound disturbance forty four which began the race with great promise, is still chasing the analogous kitten and heading pointlessly into east Atlantic oblivion.

Stand easy.