Early signs of a new system in the Bay of Campeche and a storm in the making to the east

General overview 1400z 7th September 2013

Disturbance forty six which became tropical depression just befoere landing in Mexico has now dissipated over the central highlands.

In the Bay of Campeche and south western Gulf of Mexico, increased moisture is expected over the next week. Showers and storms are already increasing in the region today. In addition, a trough of low pressure will cause increased stormy conditions in the region by Wednesday or Thursday. This has been tagged disturbance fifty. This activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm in the Bay of Campeche by Thursday or Friday. Most modellers agree that this would most likely be only a Bay of Campeche threat, and not a significant threat to the northern Gulf other than increased showers and thunderstorms.

The remains of Gabrielle has finally absorbed competing disturbance forty-seven and are now located about 515 miles south-sou'west of Bermuda and are moving is to the north-nor'east at 6 knots. The remnants are expected to track generally north over the next few days and then turn north east as a trough of low pressure moves off the east coast of the continental United States. Although atmospheric conditions are expected to remain marginal for development over the next few, some modellers indicate a chance of redevelopment, however this is unlikelt top have any impact on land.

Disturbance forty eight remains a weak disturbance in the central Atlantic. After having been nearly stationary for the past few days, the disturbance appears to be moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. The system only has a slight chance of developing over the next few days.

Disturbance forty nine is becoming better organised in the far eastern Atlantic anout one day west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 6 knots. The system is very well defined and expected to strengthen into a tropical storm - and given excellent envionmental conditons. possibly a hurricane - within the next 48 to 72 hours, or possibly sooner. This will peak too early to constitute any tangible threat to the western half of the Atlantic Basin although it may eventually reach as far west as the central Atlantic.

Stand easy.