An unusually quiet day for mid-season

General overview 1600z 21st September 2013 from west to east

To a collective sigh of disappointment from a number of modellers, disturbance fifty two has merged with a cold front in the north west Gulf of Mexico. There will be continued squalls and patches of heavy rain across north western Gulf and coastal areas into Louisiana, but any capacity to develop has been utterly quashed by upper wind shear, courtesy of MANUEL.

Disturbance forty three is welll out to sea now in the western Atlantic - about half a day east of Bermuda - and is headed further seaward at 10 knots. This has formed a viable centre, but too little too late and this is destined to disappear in sub-tropical mid-Atlantic anonymity.

A low pressure centre has formed in association with disturbance forty three as it approaches the Caribbean from the east, This will move through the Leeward and Windward Islands tomorrow however westerly wind shear should prevent the disturbance from developing into a tropical depression.

Stand easy.

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