MANUEL and a frontal trough save Gulf of Mexico from a certain category 3 storm.
General overview 1800z 22nd September 2013 from west to east
It could be said that the worst-case modeller who announced that disturbance fifty two would cut a swathe across the oil leases was not wrong on track but mercifully, a country mile way with his intensity. Upper level shear from MANUEL and a frontal low sweeping across the northern Gulf have demasculated this system and it is now at the tail end of am eastbound front - harmlessly crossing the oil leases. Patchy showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts in places are a welcome alternative to worst-case modelled category 3 hurricane last week.
Disturbance fifty five is a new system which has developed today, just to the south of the Cayman Islands. The forecast track could take this into the Gulf of Mexico however it is very disorganised and looks highly unlikely to develop expected as it moves to the northwest, toward the southern Gulf.
Disturbance fifty three is past and clear of the south of Bermuda and weakening as it heads to the north-nor'east at 10 knots. Strong wind shear is expected to prevent any development from occurring.
A new disturbance - fify six - has formed about one day west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving to the west at 7 knots, Early days, but satellite images show a fairly uninspiring start.