Tropical storm JERRY meandering pointlessly at sea

General overview 1500z 1st October 2013, from west to east –

Tropical fish storm JERRY is mid-Atlantic, still circling erratically around the western edge of a ridge of high pressure. It is currently moving to the southeast near 10 knots but changes by the hour, and this looping motion is expected to continue for the next few days. There is no threat to land.

Disturbance fifty eight has become rather more organised in the south west Caribbean as it moves to the north west at 5 knots however, moderate wind shear is likely to affect the disturbance during the next couple of days. On Thursday, it is expected to cross the Yucatan and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. By late Saturday, it should move over the north central Gulf coast. As the system moves into the northern Gulf, wind shear is likely to increase further as the system interacts with an approaching cold front. The chances of any deep and meaningful development are very slim. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to produce squally wind gusts to about 50 knots as it passes the oil leases at the weekend.

Disturbance fifty nine has crept further north on its westerly track and may interact with JERRY to its detriment in the coming days. This is unlikely to survive the Atlantic crossing.

Disturbance sixty has formed about two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and appears to be moving to the west around 12 knots. No development is expected within the next few days.

Stand easy. 

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