Disturbance fifty eight Gulf bound

General overview 1630 2nd October 2013, from west to east

Disturbance fifty eight is moving into the north western Caribbean centred about 165 miles south east of Cancun. The system track across the north eastern Yucatan peninsular later today, then enter the south eastern Gulf tomorrow. Wind shear today, then dry air in the Gulf tomorrow followed by an advancing front when it reaches the north Gulf will hamper development – otherwise this would have the makings of a decent storm. It looks certain now that landfall will be along the central Gulf coast on Saturday evening somewhere between the Mississippi and the Florida panhandle. Conditions are marginal for development and it could become a depression over the next day or two, with a chance of becoming a brief and weak tropical storm. Increasing upper level wind shear will keep most of the associated squalls north-east to east of the centre by the time it enters the northern Gulf on Friday.

Disturbance fifty nine is centred around 200 miles north of the Amazon delta and is moving to the west-northwest near 12 knots in turbulent upper level air thus development is not expected

Tropical storm JERRY is not very impressive looking on satellite imagery. Sustained winds are struggling to make 40 knots. Now centred around 2,000 miles west-sou'west of the Azores, JERRY is expected to track to the north east or east-nor'east in the general direction of the Azores over the next few days. Minor intensity fluctuations are expected but JERRY is expected to remain a weak tropical storm over the next 5 days. No land mass is expected to be affected.

Disturbance sixty is three days west of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 10 knots and is also hitting unfavourable air flows. No development is expected within the next 5 days.

Stand easy.