First indications of the end of the Gulf storm season

Disturbance sixty-five is now 150 miles north-nor'east of Bermuda and moving to the north-nor'east at 10 knots. The disturbance remains disorganised, and environmental conditions are unfavourable for development as the system weakens and heads towards merging into a frontal zone.

Disturbance sixty six is midway between Africa and the southern Windward Islands and moving west at 15 knots. Showers and storms have decreased since yesterday and development is not expected.

Two modellers – neither from north of the 49th parallel - are predicting an increase in moisture and some convection across the Bay of Campeche and north west Caribbean in around eight days time, as a frontal boundary slows down and withdraws east from the area. Neither modeller is expecting tropical development and environmental conditions are fairly unlikely to be favourable for significant cyclone formation. However, low pressure cells can deepen in the wake of retreating fronts and rapidly changing conditions aloft could allow an opportunist rat to make a desperate dash for the drainpipe. In any event, if a viable cyclone was to develop, it would be pushed to the east, avoiding the north and north-west Gulf of Mexico. Despite a personal aversion to anything above short term forecasting at this time of year, the heavy clouds of winter are fast approaching the north-western, northern and central Gulf of Mexico. This brief opportunity at the end of next week is likely to be the swansong for the 2013 storm season in the Gulf of Mexico. The eastern seaboard will of course remain open for storm business, for the time being. 

Stand easy.

 

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