Two westbound disturbances in the Caribbean and a new model being discussed

General situation Monday 28th October 2013 from west to east -

Disturbance seventy one is located in the western Caribbean and moving west at 20 knots - a speed that suppresses development. On this track, the disturbance should be ashore in central America by this time tomorrow. There are few squalls remaining with this disturbance, however no development is expected.

Disturbance seventy is close to the Leeward and Windward Islands and also moving west at a good speed - just shy of 18 knots. Periods of heavy squalls are likely as it moves quickly through the islands, however, tropical development is unlikely and this will probably follow seventy one into central America.

Later this week or early next, some reliable computer modellers are indicating that a broad area of low pressure may develop in the Caribbean and with that, a slight chance that a tropical cyclone could form. If any development were to occur, the current barricade of frontal activity is likely to push this to the east and north, well away from central Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, however impact on the eastern Caribbean or Bahamas cannot be ruled out.

Stand easy. 

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