Modellers discussing possible cyclone development in the Caribbean

General situation Tuesday 29th October 2013 from west to east -

Disturbance seventy one is almost ashore now in central America having been pinned to the south by a strong stationary front which runs unbroken from Belize to the Faeroe Islands, effectively fencing the Gulf of Mexico. This has had its day.

Disturbance seventy is now centred 200 miles west of the Windward and Leeward Islands and continuing to race west at 20 knots. This system is also likely to be kept on this heading whilst upper level wind shear across the region will keep development chances low.

More modellers today are talking up the idea of a broad area of low pressure forming in the central Caribbean, as the dominant frontal system drifts east and some consider that a slight chance of tropical cyclone development exists. If any development were to occur, it would move to the north and remain well east of the Gulf of Mexico.