Disturbance thirteen enters centre stage.

he weak and faltering low pressure cell which crept into the convergence zone late last week has beaten the odds and organised mid Atlantic. This is disturbance thirteen of the 2014 season. Tracking west at a leisurely 10 knots, this has found a fertile patch in an otherwise inhospitably dry belt. Not all are in agreement though, and the European modeller is dismissing this as another meteorological runt. Most other forecasters plot this as heading for the Lesser Antilles and onward to the Virgin Islands with a range of intensities from depression to tropical storm. This still has to negotiate some steep upper level shear for the next day or two, so predictions of intensity are premature at best.

Elsewhere, all quiet.

Stand easy.