Disturbance thirteen strengthening

Disturbance thirteen is generating a little excitement. Currently centred 1400 miles east of Barbados, westbound at 15 knots, the system has become better organised overnight and is looking determined to become a tropical depression later today. The smart money is then on it developing further into a weak tropical storm as it moves through the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Wind shear aloft is still fairly strong which is likely to prevent this becoming an all singing and dancing hurricane, but this has not deterred the more enthusiastic forecaster. Majority vote has this turning north then veering east before reaching the continental United States but by no means certain.

A new disturbance - fourteen - has slipped its moorings and left the African coast, westbound at 10 knots. This has some work to do to cross the water, but disturbance thirteen managed, after all.

Stand easy