Three weak disturbances across the reporting region.

General situation from west to east Wednesday 13th August 2014

Disturbance sixteen disappeared ashore in southern Mexico overnight and dissipated.

Disturbance eighteen is in the east central Caribbean now and moving west at 16 knots, but there is still some upper level shear in the region and development is not expected.

My fears for the area off the Carolinas proved to be unfounded and this has been absorbed by a retreating upper level cold front.

Disturbance seventeen is centred around 500 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving west at 19 knots. Some of the excitement over this system has died down as it battles with dry air from the Sahara, but could strengthen over the next day or two. This will reach the Lesser Antilles early on Saturday then track west or west-nor'west across the northern portion of the Caribbean. Most guidance indicates it could then move into the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico or northern Bahamas as a weak disturbance, but development is not expected in that area.

Disturbance nineteen is about a day and a half steaming west of the Cape Verde islands, moving west at 10 knots. The disturbance is expected to push west slowly for the next couple of days and to begin strengthening by the weekend when it would move slowly to the west-nor'west. Development is not expected for the next two to three days.

Stand easy 

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