Hurricane CRISTOBAL in eastern Atlantic. Fish storm.

Overview Tuesday 26th August 2014

From west to east - Disturbance twenty two is an upper-level disturbance with an accompanying surface trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is moving west-sou'west at 12 knots. This disturbance is expected to slow down today. On Wednesday, a turn to the west-nor'west is likely, and the disturbance is then expected to move into Texas on Thursday. There is some talk of this developing into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before it moves inland. Widespread showers and scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are likely through the next few days over the north-central and north western Gulf of Mexico, and also along the coast.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL is about 600 miles south west of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are reaching 70 knots. Some strengthening is possible over the next 36 hours as it moves north at 8 knots. An acceleration to the northeast is expected to follow and CRISTOBAL should become extratropical on Friday when it passes to the southeast of Atlantic Canada.

A couple of models have been suggesting that a new disturbance could form late this week or this weekend in the central or western Caribbean, and it could potentially move into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week. One to watch.

Disturbance twenty one is centred around 700 miles north of the Amazon delta as it moves west at 16 knots. Development is not expected within the next 72 hours. However, the disturbance may yet develop into a tropical storm once it enters (or passes north of) the Caribbean. The disturbance may spread squalls over the Leeward and Virgin Islands beginning Friday, and the system may be located just north of Puerto Rico by Saturday.

A new disturbance twenty three is a strong tropical wave currently inland over central Africa and expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Friday or Saturday. Several models indicate it could quickly develop into a tropical storm after launch. Stand easy.