Disturbance forty four drifting north. Speculation for next week.

Disturbance forty four is around the mid-Atlantic point and is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. The disturbance is expected to turn to the northwest and pass north of the Lesser Antilles in 2-3 days. Once north of the eastern Caribbean there is a slim chance of it developing into a depression or weak tropical storm. If the system becomes a tropical cyclone, it would probably track harmlessly northwest passing north of the Bahamas before turning to the northeast and accelerating out to sea.

A number of US and Canadian modellers are watching a possible tropical cyclone forming in the western Caribbean over the weekend or early next week. There is very little agreement between them, and the European model does not indicate development at all. Still, it remains a possibility. If it does form, there is a chance it could affect the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico in about a week from now. It appears there is very little chance of it affecting the north western Gulf of Mexico. Plenty of uncertainty and a hint of desperation from the more sanguine contributors.

Stand easy